The forecasts based on the Biden Harris 2020 Truth Hope Decency Political Button shirt poll were heavily skewed during the 2016 election. At that time, President Donald Trump won while most polls confirmed he would lose.
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The question is whether the polls in the 2020 US presidential election can be trusted? Or, as in 2016, the polls are fundamentally underestimating Donald Trump’s support? The US Research Center’s analysis shows that Donald Trump’s chances of winning are not small.
In the US presidential elections, the states are assigned electoral votes roughly proportional to the population of the state. In almost all states, the candidate with the most votes wins all of that state’s electoral votes. The candidate who wins a majority of the electoral votes – 270 or more out of 538 – will win the Biden Harris 2020 Truth Hope Decency Political Button shirt final.
The 2016 election is the 5th in American history, the Biden Harris 2020 Truth Hope Decency Political Button shirt winner Donald Trump has lost the popular nationwide vote, but won the Electoral College of 306 votes, to defeat rival Hillary Clinton.
Accordingly, this time, electoral analysts focus less on national polls to focus more on exploration in oscillating states – which will decide the 2020 election.
Mr. Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in some of the volatile states that Mr. Barack Obama won in 2008 and / or 2012, but Mr. Donald Trump won in 2016: Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These 5 states have 90 electoral votes.
Mr. Joe Biden also led polls in Arizona (11 electoral college votes) – the state that the Republicans won in 16/17 presidential elections last.
If averaging recent polls in these states, Donald Trump would lose the Biden Harris 2020 Truth Hope Decency Political Button shirt 101 electoral votes he won in 2016 and be clearly defeated.
But 2016 polls systematically underestimated Donald Trump’s support, 5.3 points lower than Hillary Clinton in North Carolina, Minnesota (5.7), Ohio (6.9). and Wisconsin (7.2).
The 2016 polls ultimately picked the wrong winners in four states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – with a total of 75 electoral votes – more than enough to lead to an incorrect prediction that Mrs. Clinton would win. .
An in-depth review of the 2016 poll revealed an unusually large number of Donald Trump’s supporters but made a late decision. This year’s polls show just the opposite, with a record low of undecided voters in history. It seems that most Americans have a firm view of Donald Trump in one way or another, and that is also reflected in his extremely stable ratings of support.
Averaging the latest state polls shows that Joe Biden is likely to win with 334 electoral votes compared to Donald Trump’s 204 votes.
But if the 2020 polls do not match 2016, then Joe Biden’s lead positions in at least North Carolina and Wisconsin are inaccurate, meaning Mr. Joe Biden could get 309 votes. electorate compared with the Biden Harris 2020 Truth Hope Decency Political Button shirt 229 votes of Mr. Donald Trump.
In recent weeks, Mr. Joe Biden has led polls from Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Florida. Florida will be particularly important with 29 electoral votes, the third largest state in terms of electoral votes.
If Donald Trump won these states, he would have won narrowly with 282 electoral votes.
Assume the range of error in the 2016 poll recurs in 2020 – today’s poll implies that Donald Trump has about a third of a chance of being re-elected.